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Bhasayate - Fark.com Scientific theories take a long time to develop, and even then, they are overturned more than they are confirmed.

Plus, to demonstrate greenhouse effect is one thing, and to show that human activity could increase it, that is one thing. But there are many other possible variables and possible causes of the current global warming/destabilization trend.

Anyway, just because a theory has been around a while, doesn't mean it's not controversial -- consider quantum mechanics.

I don't think it's that silly to consider the current state of the climate debate in it's early stages, not very well developed, compared to other theories, and hence very reasonable to expect drastic revaluations of the theory, even that it might be fundamentally flawed. Again, most theories have been overturned in this way.

What is silly is to think that the current theory, just as it is, at this current stage, is completely correct and beyond a reasonable doubt true.

That's not even scientific to think something like that. "Confirmation" just is "not yet refuted", for falsificationists (like Karl Popper). The more you poke at a theory, the more likely you are to find a mistake, and then adjust to fix it.

But if you have your conclusion in hand, prior to the evaluation of the theory, then you're likely to intepret the data so that it confirms your theory.

Methodoligically, scientists shouldn't be too attached to their theories. Unfortunately, they are, and partly because political influence has been backing the science for quite some time. Vested interests and science don't mix well.

Anyway, not saying it's not happening, just doubting that it is happening for reasons we've totally identified, and doubting the dire projections, the doom and gloom 'prophecies' of the Al Gore types.

We need more scientists to poke holes in the current theory, raise objections, and kick the crap out of the theory and see if it withstands severe criticism. That's how you progress towards theories that are more likely to be true.

Don't coddle your theory, kick it and see if you can knock it down.

Most theories do fall down after being criticized. Then they are typically shown to be false.

Doesn't mean the current "hasn't yet been knocked down" theory is true, just that it's not yet been falsified.

Enough philosophy of science for one day

Source: http://www.fark.com/cgi/comments.pl?IDLink=4852243

Dan Gainor Spokesman for the Media Research Center


ďFirst we were told the world was cooling. Then it was getting hotter, then cooling again. Then hotter. Now itís just climate change -- so they canít be wrong no matter what change occurs.Ē

Source: http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/02/03/worsening-winters-come-global-warming/










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